je.st
news
Tag: xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-05 15:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 14:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 15:21:51 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-11-05 15:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 A burst of deep convection occurred over the low-level center around the time of the last advisory, but that activity has again been scoured off to the northeast due to 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is very close to the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates. Xavier has been tenaciously resisting the ill effects of shear for the time being. However, the circulation will be moving westward toward a drier environment where mid-level relative humidity values are 30-40 percent. In theory, the combination of strong shear and drier air should put an end to deep convection production, but relatively warm waters could still allow the cyclone to produce intermittent bursts of shower and thunderstorm activity over the next several days. Based on the latest intensity guidance, no changes were made to the official forecast, which continues to show Xavier becoming a remnant low in 48 hours and dissipating by day 4. Caught within a break in the subtropical ridge, Xavier is only creeping west-northwestward, or 295/3 kt. As deep convection gradually dwindles near the cyclone, the shallower circulation is expected to be steered westward to the south of a low-level ridge stretching across northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one during the first 24 hours. After 24 hours, it has been nudged southward toward the various consensus aids, continuing the trend that was noted by the previous forecaster. Even though Xavier is slowly moving away from the coast of Mexico, inclement weather is still occurring near the coasts of Colima and Jalisco, and tropical-storm-force winds could still be occurring in that vicinity. Therefore, it's prudent to continue the Tropical Storm Warning until we have confirmation that the strong winds have shifted farther offshore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-05 15:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER INCHING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 18.5, -106.2 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 12
2018-11-05 15:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER INCHING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 106.2W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 106.2 West. Xavier is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but an increase in forward speed is expected later today. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and continue to move farther away from the coast today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through midday. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-11-05 15:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 051431 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 1500 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] next »