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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-05 06:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 05:43:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 03:21:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-05 06:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 AM CST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 18.4, -105.8 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-11-05 06:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050543 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Xavier is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast later today. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-05 03:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 02:39:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 03:21:49 GMT
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xavier
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-11-05 03:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 Xavier continues to be influenced by strong southwesterly shear, on the order of 30 kt, yet appears to be maintaining its intensity for now. In fact, microwave imagery shows only a slight eastward tilt of the center with height which is surprising for a tropical cyclone apparently experiencing shear of such magnitude. It is quite possible that strong upper-level divergence over the area is helping to maintain the strength of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB which will continue to be used for the advisory intensity. In spite of Xavier's resilience to a hostile atmospheric environment, the strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass should soon take their toll on the cyclone. The GFS and the ECMWF global models suggest that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within a couple of days, and this is also shown by the official forecast. Xavier has been moving slowly and just to the west of north, or a motion of 350/5 kt, toward a slight weakness in the mid-level flow to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula. A ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, and this should cause Xavier to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so. By 3-4 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is likely to move generally westward within the low-level flow field. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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