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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-05 00:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... ...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Sun Nov 4 the center of Xavier was located near 18.3, -105.6 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 9A
2018-11-05 00:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042334 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 600 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 ...XAVIER CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... ...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 105.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. Xavier is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight and on Monday, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast tonight and on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics
2018-11-04 21:43:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 20:43:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Nov 2018 21:21:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-11-04 21:40:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 2100 UTC SUN NOV 04 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-11-04 21:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 After being sheared off this morning, deep convection has redeveloped and persisted over Xavier's center of circulation. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 3.0, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 43 kt. The initial intensity therefore remains 45 kt. Although shear analyses indicate that about 25 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting Xavier, an upper-level trough in the vicinity appears to be producing a decent amount of divergence aloft to support the ongoing convection. The global models show that trough dissipating and the upper flow becoming unidirectional within 12 hours, which should cut off the divergence and allow the adverse effects of shear and dry air to take over. As a result, gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Xavier may cease to produce organized deep convection (and thus become a remnant low) in 36-48 hours. The remnant low should dissipate by day 4, if not sooner. The updated NHC intensity forecast is conservative, following continuity from the previous forecast and lying near the upper bound of the intensity models. Xavier's motion still appears to be slowly northward, or 350/5 kt. The global models, most of which assume that Xavier will become a shallow system soon, show the cyclone turning northwestward and west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. While this seems reasonable, as long as Xavier maintains vertical integrity, it will likely continue moving closer to the right side of the guidance envelope. With the assumption that deep convection won't dissipate right away, the NHC track forecast is to the right of the consensus aids, close to the ECMWF solution, during the first 24 hours. After 24 hours, it remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. A 1600 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Xavier's tropical-storm-force wind field on the east side was larger than previously estimated, with those winds lying near the coast of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Locally heavy rainfall and large swells are also likely to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 18.1N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.7N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 19.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.5N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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