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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA Graphics
2017-06-28 16:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 14:39:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Jun 2017 14:39:48 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-06-28 16:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281434 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly low-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications support an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not expected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is expected to occur in 36-48 h. The initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN. This is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-06-28 16:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 281434 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 1500 UTC WED JUN 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-28 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 the center of DORA was located near 20.1, -113.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DORA Public Advisory Number 15
2017-06-28 16:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 ...DORA HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 113.9W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 113.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Dora is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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