je.st
news
Tag: dora
Hurricane DORA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-06-26 16:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261432 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Dora has continued to rapidly intensify with a 20-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye now evident in visible satellite imagery. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and continues to expand in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T4.7/82 kt from CIMSS ADT, which supports an initial intensity of 75 kt. Dora could be a little stronger, but recent infrared imagery indicates that the inner-core convection has eroded significantly since the 1200 UTC fixes, so the initial intensity will remain on the low end of estimates for this advisory. Dora has been holding on a steady west-northwestward course or 295/11 kt for the past 12 hours. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge entrenched to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Dora moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 3 days or so. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to weaken significantly and become a more vertically shallow system, steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow until Dora dissipates by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies a little south of the consensus track model TVCE out of respect for the more southerly ECMWF solution. Dora has about another 12 hours or so to strengthen. However, the rapid intensification event that the hurricane has undergone for the past 30 hours has likely ended. The aforementioned erosion of the inner-core convection is possibly due to the entrainment of cooler and more stable air into the western semicircle now that Dora is beginning to encroach upon 26-deg C SSTs. The vertical wind shear is expected to remain low at less than 5 kt and the favorable upper-level outflow pattern is forecast to persist for the next few days as well. The only hindering factor will be the decreasing thermodynamics due to the hurricane moving over sub-26C SSTs within 12-18 hours. Steady weakening should begin by 24 h, but the rate of the weakening trend should be lessened due to proximity to warmer water just south of the path of Dora and the aforementioned favorable dynamic conditions. The NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN. Although the center of Dora is forecast to remain well offshore, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.3N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.1N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND 48H 28/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/1200Z 20.4N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane DORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-06-26 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261432 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 2 27(29) 27(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 24(25) 59(84) 3(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 40(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 27(36) 1(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane DORA (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-26 16:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 the center of DORA was located near 17.3, -106.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane DORA Public Advisory Number 7
2017-06-26 16:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261431 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 106.3W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora will remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today and pass well to the south of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today before weakening begins by Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane DORA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-06-26 16:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261431 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 1500 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 111.1W...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.4N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] next »