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Hurricane Dora Graphics
2017-06-26 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 08:46:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Jun 2017 08:46:23 GMT
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Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-06-26 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional satellite imagery. The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 70 kt. Dora has about 12-24 hours to further strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to decay. Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids. Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the previous NHC forecast. Given the spread in the guidance, this is a low confidence forecast. Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast for that time. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-06-26 10:41:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 260841 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 0900 UTC MON JUN 26 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 9(11) 37(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 7( 9) 56(65) 18(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 15(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 23(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Dora (EP4/EP042017)
2017-06-26 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DORA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 the center of Dora was located near 16.7, -105.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 6
2017-06-26 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 ...DORA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 105.3W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.3 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is likely today before weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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