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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-09-26 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260236 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 While there is strong, deep convection associated with Rachel, microwave and last light visible imagery indicate that the tropical storm is still being sheared with the center at the edge of the convective overcast. Subjective Dvorak assessments from TAFB and SAB as well as the CIMSS AMSU method suggest peak sustained winds of about 45 kt, which is the initial intensity. While an upper-level anticyclone is contributing toward about 15 kt of northeasterly shear over Rachel currently, this should subside to quite low values from 24 through 72 hr. However, at the same time, Rachel's track should take it over gradually cooler waters and into much drier, stable air. The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow intensification through two days, followed by gradual weakening. This prediction is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical and GFDL dynamical models and is about the same as in the previous advisory. No in situ observations were available for the tropical-storm-force wind radii, so no changes were made to the initial small size of Rachel. The global and regional hurricane models suggest that Rachel will remain relatively small for the next few days, which is the basis for the NHC wind radii forecast. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 kt, primarily being steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast. The tropical storm should round the western periphery of the ridge in about two to three days. After that time, Rachel will meander as a decaying vortex in the weak lower tropospheric flow. The NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCE multi-model ensemble and is about the same as that issued in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.7N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.2N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.9N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-26 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 the center of RACHEL was located near 17.7, -111.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 7
2014-09-26 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 ...RACHEL REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 111.9W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-09-26 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 21 44(65) 3(68) 2(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) ISLA CLARION 50 1 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-09-26 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260235 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 111.9W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 111.9W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 115.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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