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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 20
2018-10-11 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 80.8W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of the Savannah River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed are expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central and eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post- tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Folly Island, South Carolina. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of central and eastern South Carolina and will spread northward over central and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and evening. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum ttals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this evening across central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-10-11 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 111448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 36(36) 22(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 16(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 45(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 46(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 9 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DANVILLE VA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 33 37(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) NORFOLK NAS 50 2 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 38 40(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NORFOLK VA 50 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) OCEANA NAS VA 34 40 44(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) OCEANA NAS VA 50 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 64 20(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ELIZABETH CTY 50 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) RALEIGH NC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ROCKY MT NC 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 40 7(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FAYETTEVILLE 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FAYETTEVILLE 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NEW RIVER NC 34 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SURF CITY NC 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) WILMINGTON NC 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BALD HEAD ISL 34 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MYRTLE BEACH 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GEORGETOWN SC 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-10-11 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 111448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAVANNAH RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 160SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.6N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.8N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 320SE 240SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 200SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 300SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 48.2N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 480SE 480SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 49.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 80.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-11 13:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Michael was located near 34.1, -81.8 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 19A
2018-10-11 13:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 81.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central South Carolina this morning, then move across portions of central and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this afternoon and this evening, and move into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post- tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A coastal marine observing site at Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of eastern and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. These conditions will spread northward across central and eastern portions of North Carolina today. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and southeast Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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