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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-10-08 10:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080858 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made several passes through the system during the past few hours, and somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt. This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours. With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast. Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48 hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east coast of the United States. Michael should then become an extratropical low by day 5. The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States, exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a fairly confident track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba, where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today. 2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Michael Graphics
2018-10-08 10:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 08:58:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 09:28:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-10-08 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 080856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 11(37) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 3(34) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 12(45) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 3(40) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 7(43) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 8(45) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 8(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 5(43) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 4(43) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 3(44) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 2(45) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) 1(45) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 2(44) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 2(47) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 37(45) 1(46) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35(49) X(49) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) X(35) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 33(49) X(49) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 31(51) X(51) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 17(45) 1(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 16(57) X(57) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) X(23) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 13(44) X(44) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 13(45) X(45) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 6(49) X(49) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) X(30) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 28(32) 6(38) X(38) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) X(25) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 4 7(11) 3(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 13(24) 2(26) X(26) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 24(32) 2(34) X(34) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 43(61) 2(63) X(63) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 68(75) 6(81) X(81) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 6(48) X(48) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 66(75) 5(80) X(80) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 5(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 57(91) 1(92) X(92) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 59(65) 2(67) X(67) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 1(41) X(41) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 42(92) 1(93) X(93) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 54(67) 1(68) X(68) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 1(44) X(44) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 60(90) 1(91) X(91) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 57(63) 1(64) X(64) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 53(76) 1(77) X(77) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) X(43) X(43) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 11(52) X(52) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 5(41) X(41) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 44(52) 3(55) X(55) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 43(52) 2(54) X(54) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 47(59) 28(87) 1(88) X(88) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 38(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) X(39) X(39) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 29(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 43 11(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HAVANA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 22 6(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-08 10:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Michael was located near 20.6, -85.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 7
2018-10-08 10:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080856 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday night... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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