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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-11-17 15:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 055 WTPZ25 KNHC 171432 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 111.1W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 111.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Raymond Graphics
2019-11-17 09:39:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 08:39:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 08:39:20 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...RAIN HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 AM MST Sun Nov 17 the center of Raymond was located near 17.5, -111.6 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Raymond Public Advisory Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Raymond Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 ...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...RAIN HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Raymond was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 111.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected today, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well organized and there is no evidence of banding features. A recent ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become quite strong within the next 24 hours. As a result, weakening is anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California. Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt. A deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. After that time, Raymond or its remnants are forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is absorbed into the aforementioned trough. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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