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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-28 22:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 20:46:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 21:33:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 51
2017-09-28 22:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 After the earlier burst of convection near the center of Maria, the overall convective pattern has become more ragged and cloud tops have warmed. Westerly vertical shear has also displaced most of the convective cloud shield to the east of the center. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB has decreased to 45 kt, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON values have decreased to 54 kt and 55 kt, respectively. Therefore, Maria's initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt for this advisory. Despite the ragged satellite appearance, a 1431Z AMSU overpass indicated that Maria is still a tropical cyclone based on a deep warm core that extends from near the surface to above the 200 mb level, accompanied by a warm anomaly of at least 2.5 deg C in the middle- and upper-levels of the cyclone. The initial motion estimate is 090/11 kt. Maria is forecast to move in an easterly direction for the next 12 h or along the northern edge of a strong deep-layer ridge located to its south. By 24 h, acceleration and a turn toward the east-northeast is expected ahead an approaching deep-layer trough. By 36-48 h, Maria is forecast to turn toward the northeast and further accelerate, reaching forward speeds of 30-35 kt when the cyclone will be moving over the far North Atlantic. The latest track guidance continues to remain in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario, and only a slight nudge to the south of the previous forecast was required. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 36 h or so while Maria remains over marginal SSTs of 25-26C and within a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment. By 36 h and beyond, Maria will be moving over sub-24C SSTs, reaching 21 deg C water by 48 h or so. Increasing westerly wind shear of more than 40 kt should induce a slow weakening trend, and Maria is now expected to become extratropical by 48 h due to the aforementioned unfavorable conditions. The extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low or frontal system over the northeastern Atlantic by 96 h, before the low moves across Ireland. The intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 36.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 37.1N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 38.1N 58.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 40.0N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 42.7N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 48.8N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2017-09-28 22:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 282038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-28 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 28 the center of Maria was located near 36.8, -67.8 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 51
2017-09-28 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 67.8W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 67.8 West. Maria is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and the storm is expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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