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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 50
2017-09-28 16:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281449 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 ...MARIA BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 69.3W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Maria is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and the storm is expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will continue to move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 50
2017-09-28 16:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 69.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 66.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.8N 56.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.3N 48.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.9N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-28 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 08:42:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 09:28:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 49
2017-09-28 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 Maria's satellite presentation has not changed much during the past six hours, with 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear continuing to displace much of the deep convection to the east of the center. Despite the discrepancy between aircraft observations and Dvorak estimates noted yesterday, a pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt range. Even with the assumption that the resolution of the ASCAT data may not have revealed the highest winds, an analysis suggests that Maria has weakened back to a 60-kt tropical storm. Little change in intensity is anticipated during the next two days while Maria moves over sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees Celsius, and while vertical shear decreases during the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, a marked jump in shear and much colder waters should induce more weakening, and model guidance indicates that Maria should complete extratropical transition by day 3. The extratropical low should then be absorbed by a larger system over the northeastern Atlantic by day 4. This scenario is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Maria is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is now moving toward the east-northeast, or 060/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward very soon, but then turn back toward the east-northeast in 36 hours as a positively tilted trough moves off the New England and Atlantic Canada coasts. The speed differences among the track models are not as significant as they were yesterday, although the updated NHC track forecast was nudged southward for much of the forecast period to follow an overall modest shift in the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 36.8N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 36.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 37.0N 64.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 38.0N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 40.0N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 46.4N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-28 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 the center of Maria was located near 36.8, -71.0 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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