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Tropical Storm Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-09-27 11:15:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 09:15:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-27 10:42:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 08:42:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 09:28:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 45
2017-09-27 10:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Maria has changed little in structure since the last advisory. A band of deep convection attempted to wrap around the western side of the circulation, but that has since dissipated due to continued shear and dry air. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on surface winds measured by the SFMR on the previous reconnaissance flight. Maria will likely be moving over some warm and cold eddies associated with the Gulf Stream during the next 2 to 3 days, and with vertical shear expected to gradually decrease during that time, only slow weakening is anticipated. After day 3, vertical shear increases significantly, and Maria is expected to complete extratropical transition by day 4. The global models then indicate that the low will be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5. Earlier reconnaissance fixes indicated that Maria's center was jumping around a bit, but its average motion is estimated to be slowly northward, or 005 degrees at 4 kt. Maria is moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the central Atlantic, and it should enter the mid-latitude westerlies in about 36 hours, at which point it is expected to accelerate northeastward across the north Atlantic. Most of the model spread continues to be in the along-track direction, highlighted by the faster GFS and HWRF models and the slower ECMWF model. As was the case before, the updated NHC track forecast splits the difference between these scenarios and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the U.S. east coast during the next day or so. However, tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through much of today. 2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina. 3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 35.1N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 35.7N 72.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 36.2N 71.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 36.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 37.0N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 40.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 47.5N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-27 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 27 Sep 2017 08:36:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2017-09-27 10:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 270835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC WED SEP 27 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 9 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PAX RIVER NAS 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) RICHMOND VA 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 9 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NORFOLK VA 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 11 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ELIZABETH CTY 34 12 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) RALEIGH NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 10 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 8 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SURF CITY NC 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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