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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-09-23 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Data from this morning's Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight suggests that Maria's maximum winds may be decreasing a bit--a trend which was noted in the previous advisory package. The plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight level wind of 102 kt and SFMR winds as high as 85 kt, neither of which supports an intensity of 105 kt. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively lowered to 100 kt. Maria is now located between a mid-level high centered near Bermuda and a cut-off low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, both of which are steering the hurricane north-northwestward, or 340/7 kt. Maria should turn northward between these two features beginning in about 12 hours, but its forward motion is likely to be impeded in a couple of days by ridging developing over the northeastern United States. As a result, the hurricane's forward speed will decrease to 5 kt or less from day 2 and beyond. The track guidance has continued to trend toward slower and farther westward solutions, and as we had foreshadowed in previous discussions, an additional westward adjustment to the new NHC track forecast was required on this cycle. The updated forecast is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions and close to the consensus aids and HCCA through day 3. After that time, the new forecast is slower and southwest of the consensus aids, but still not quite as far west as the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET solutions. Based on various analyses, the southwesterly shear over Maria has decreased since yesterday, and it appears to remain relatively low for the next 2 days or so. Maria will be moving over very warm waters during that time, although the depth of the warm pool does decrease, and Maria's slower motion could increase the effects of colder upwelled water. After 48 hours, vertical shear is forecast to increase again, and a critical part of the intensity forecast will be whether or not Maria moves over the cold wake left behind by Jose. The recent westward shifts in the forecast track make it more likely that Maria would avoid the cold wake and move over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Since the environment may not be as hostile as the dynamical models are assuming, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus for much of the forecast period. To increase the sampling of the environment upstream and north of Maria, supplemental 0600/1800 UTC upper-air soundings are scheduled to begin from the eastern and southeastern United States this afternoon. In addition, NOAA G-IV missions are scheduled to begin sampling the environment around Maria on Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast, and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area on Sunday. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 25.4N 72.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 28.3N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 32.1N 73.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 33.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2017-09-23 16:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 231455 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 6(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 6(24) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 6(28) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 20(41) 8(49) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) 6(35) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 16(37) 6(43) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 14(33) 6(39) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 5(30) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 5(27) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) 5(27) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 4(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 4(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 30
2017-09-23 16:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 231453 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.1N 73.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-23 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 08:59:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 09:29:28 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-09-23 10:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230853 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Maria is sending mixed signals regarding its intensity this morning. One one side, the 35 n mi wide eye has become better defined in satellite imagery, and the last report from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the central pressure had fallen to 952 mb. On the other side, the aircraft-reported winds decreased a little since the previous advisory, with maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 110 kt and maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer near 100 kt. Based on the aircraft winds, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. Various analyses show that Maria is experiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear, which is likely the reason for an asymmetric distribution of convection in the eyewall at this time. The hurricane is likely to stay over warm water in an environment of light to moderate shear for the next 36-48 h. The intensity forecast during this time will show some fluctuations in strength, with the forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 48 h, the forecast track takes Maria over the cold sea surface temperatures left behind by former hurricane Jose, which are below 26C in some areas. This should cause a pronounced weakening, and the new forecast is similar to the old forecast in showing such a trend during this time. The initial motion remains 345/8. Maria is currently being steered by a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane and a mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States. This combination should cause a north-northwestward to northward motion for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to amplify toward the northwest due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level ridge in the westerlies moving through the northeastern United States. The track guidance has responded to this evolution by shifting westward since the last advisory, with several of the global models now calling for Maria to come close enough to the U. S. east coast to cause direct impacts before the system recurves into the westerlies around 120 h. The latter part of the forecast track is also shifted to the west, but it lies to the east of the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope. If the current model trends continue, additional westward adjustments to the track forecast will be necessary later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days. 3. Maria will likely move between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week. While the forecast track has moved closer to the U. S. east coast, it is still too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. 4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in the United States, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 24.8N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.0N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.7N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 29.2N 72.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 30.3N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 32.0N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 34.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 36.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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