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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 20

2017-09-21 05:00:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210300 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 The satellite presentation is a little better organized than a few hours ago, and Maria now has a large ragged eye. However, data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the winds are still 95 kt, while the central pressure has remained unchanged oscillating near 959 mb. Even with the current favorable low-shear environment and warm ocean, it takes in general about 24 hours for the boundary layer of the hurricane to recover from the passage over high terrain, in this case Puerto Rico. In addition, the reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric eyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the inner one has collapsed in the last fix. This suggest that an eyewall replacement cyclone has occurred. With this complex scenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in intensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category 3 status in about 24 hours. Maria continues right on track, moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is expected to be steered north-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. The only change to the previous forecast is a small shift to the east by the end of the forecast period as indicated by most of the track models. By then, Maria should have reached the northwestern edge of the ridge. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and very near the HFIP corrected consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should continue to subside through early Thursday. However, heavy rainfall is expected to continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.2N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 22.3N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.7N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 32.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2017-09-21 05:00:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 210300 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 17(38) 2(40) X(40) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 2 6( 8) 30(38) 20(58) 4(62) 1(63) X(63) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 4 77(81) 16(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND TURK 50 1 32(33) 40(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GRAND TURK 64 X 9( 9) 36(45) 3(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 45 42(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) PUERTO PLATA 50 2 17(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO PLATA 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 68 2(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 20

2017-09-21 04:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210259 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 67.9W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 130SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 67.9W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 70.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.7N 71.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.8N 72.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 32.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 67.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-21 04:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WILL SOON IN THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Maria was located near 19.2, -67.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 20

2017-09-21 04:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210259 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WILL SOON IN THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 67.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the Hurricane Warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should begin to recede in the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Puerto Rico...20 to 30 inches, isolated 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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