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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-16 10:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 08:40:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 08:38:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-16 10:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160839 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 Deep convection continues to burst 60 to 70 n mi east of the center of Julia and is then pushed farther to the east by 25 to 30 kt of westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and this could be a little generous. The shear will remain strong for the next 2-3 days, and the cyclone is expected to remain in a dry mid-level environment, which should result in a gradual spin down to remnant low status. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and reflects this thinking. Julia has been moving southeastward tonight, and the initial motion estimate is 135/04. The cyclone is expected to meander erratically for the next 2-3 days in weak steering flow, while late in the period the remnant low should begin to move northeastward. Not surprisingly, the track model guidance shows a lot of spread in the direction of motion and the forward speed, so the uncertainty in the track forecast remains large. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 31.1N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 30.8N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 30.9N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.0N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 31.2N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 32.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-16 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 16 the center of JULIA was located near 31.1, -76.4 with movement SE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 10
2016-09-16 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016 ...JULIA MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 76.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 76.4 West. Julia is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion offshore of the coast of South Carolina is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is anticipated after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-09-16 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 160838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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