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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-09-16 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.8N 76.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.0N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.2N 76.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 32.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 76.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-16 04:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 02:34:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Sep 2016 02:32:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-09-16 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160232 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Just like it occurred last night, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed the convection from the center of Julia again tonight. Satellite images show that the circulation is still vigorous, and it is generously assumed that tropical-storm-force winds are occuring well to the east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt. The strong shear is forecast to persist, and the most likely solution is for Julia to maintain the same intensity for another 12 hours or so, and then gradually decay as indicated in the previous NHC forecast. It is worth noting that the SHIPS and LGEM models maintain Julia as tropical storm for the next 3 days, but the given the strong shear predicted by these models, their solution does not appear to be realistic. The tight swirl of low clouds defining the center of Julia has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 120 degrees at 4 kt. However, the steering currents are expected to be weak, and the NHC forecast calls for Julia to meander during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Julia is expected to be a remnant low, and probably will begin to drift northeastward, embedded within the mid-latitude flow. Since the steering currents are likely to be weak and poorly defined, the track models are showing divergent solutions, varying from northeast to southwest tracks, and some show no motion at all. The discrepancy in the models increases the uncertainty of the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 31.5N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 31.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 31.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z 32.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-09-16 04:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 160232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-16 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA MILLING AROUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 the center of JULIA was located near 31.5, -77.1 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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