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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 8
2016-09-15 22:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT JULIA IS AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 77.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.1 West. Julia is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a slow and erratic motion offshore of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. After that, Julia is forecast to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch across coastal sections of eastern North Carolina through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-09-15 22:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 152049 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-09-15 22:48:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152048 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.0N 76.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 76.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.5N 76.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 32.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 77.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression JULIA Graphics
2016-09-15 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:49:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:47:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-15 16:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151448 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 New convection has formed near and east of the center of Julia during the past few hours, although the low-level center remains partially exposed due to westerly vertical wind shear. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are 30 and 35 kt respectively, while various objective estimates are 35-45 kt. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but there is a possibility that this is conservative. After not moving much overnight, the center of Julia has jumped eastward this morning. The overall long-term motion is 095/7, but the short-term motion is significantly faster than that. The forecast guidance is in good agreement that Julia should move little after 12 hours, and the new track forecast is based on the premise that the current forward speed will decrease by the 12 hours point. The new forecast track has the same general idea as the previous track, but the area where Julia will meander is now forecast to be about 90 n mi farther east than in the previous forecast. Julia is forecast to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly shear for the next four days or so, and this is expected to cause a gradual weakening during this time. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one, as well as the GFS and ECMWF models, in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours. It should be noted that the shear could decrease after 96 hours, and the UKMET and Canadian models forecast re-intensification at that time. However, at this time it appears unlikely that the cyclone will survive long enough to take advantage of the possibly more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 31.8N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 31.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 31.7N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 31.6N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 31.4N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 31.5N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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