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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-09-15 10:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150840 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 Westerly shear of about 25 knots has advected dry air over Julia and removed all of the deep convection from the cyclone center, with the coldest cloud tops now more than 100 n mi to the east. Coastal observations have shown the winds decreasing overnight, with most locations now reporting sustained winds of 20 to 25 kt. Based on these data, Julia is downgraded to a depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt, which is in agreement with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Despite the cyclone being situated over warm SSTs, persistent shear and dry air should result in little change in intensity during the next few days. Remnant low status is forecast at 72 hours, but this could occur much sooner if organized deep convection does not return. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in 4-5 days, consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Julia has moved little overnight, and the initial motion estimate is a slow eastward drift at 2 kt. The shallow cyclone is expected to continue drifting eastward today and then meander in weak steering currents until dissipation. This forecast is based on the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks and is similar to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 32.0N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 32.0N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 31.9N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 31.9N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 32.0N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)

2016-09-15 10:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JULIA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 the center of JULIA was located near 32.0, -79.6 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 6

2016-09-15 10:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 ...JULIA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 79.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 79.6 West. The depression is drifting toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days, and the track forecast keeps Julia meandering offshore of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coastlines into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch across coastal sections of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2016-09-15 10:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 150838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) X(16) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 4(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 3(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 3(17) 3(20) X(20) GEORGETOWN SC 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 2(22) 3(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 5( 9) 6(15) 6(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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