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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-14 23:02:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 20:46:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 20:44:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-14 22:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 the center of JULIA was located near 32.1, -80.5 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 4
2016-09-14 22:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 ...JULIA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 80.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 80.5 West. Julia is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days. Julia is likely to meander near the northern Georgia and southern South Carolina coastlines into Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Winds to tropical storm force in a few brief squalls are possible along portions of the South Carolina coast tonight. Folly Beach, South Carolina reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of up to 6 inches along the immediate coastline of South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through Friday. This rainfall could lead to flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible near the Charleston area of coastal South Carolina through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-09-14 22:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 142044 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 7(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 13(14) 9(23) 7(30) 3(33) 2(35) X(35) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 19(23) 8(31) 7(38) 4(42) 1(43) 1(44) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 23 21(44) 7(51) 5(56) 2(58) 1(59) 1(60) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 58 5(63) 1(64) 2(66) 4(70) 1(71) X(71) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) SAVANNAH GA 34 15 4(19) 2(21) 5(26) 9(35) 2(37) 1(38) SAVANNAH GA 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 2(17) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 2(20) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 1(17) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-09-14 22:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 80.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 80.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.3N 80.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.4N 79.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.3N 79.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 32.2N 80.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 32.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 80.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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