je.st
news
Tag: jose
Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-21 10:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 08:50:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 09:22:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
jose
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 64
2017-09-21 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210838 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Jose's structure continues to consist of bands of shallow to moderate convection that are well removed to from the center, mainly in the northeast and northwest quadrants. Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen a little bit, but due to the lack of deep convection near the center, it isn't clear how applicable the Dvorak technique is in this case. The intensity has therefore been held at 50 kt, in deference to earlier ASCAT and aircraft data. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for later this morning, and this should provide more information on Jose's intensity and wind radii. The intensity guidance is still in very good agreement that Jose will continue to gradually weaken. I have no reason to doubt this, since Jose will remain over cold waters and embedded within a fairly dry environment. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, except to show Jose becoming post-tropical within 36 hours, based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs. A deep-layer trough to the northeast of Jose has continued to pull away, and the tropical storm has come to a near stop. The estimated motion is 90/2 kt, but it may be even slower than that. The global models continue to agree that Jose will remain within weak steering flow through the forecast period. The new NHC forecast remains close to the various consensus aids and keeps Jose nearly stationary through 96 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 39.8N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 39.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 39.8N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/0600Z 39.6N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/0600Z 39.4N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
jose
storm
Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 64
2017-09-21 10:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 210837 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 64 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) WORCESTER MA 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) BOSTON MA 34 4 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) HYANNIS MA 34 12 10(22) 5(27) 2(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 6 7(13) 3(16) 2(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) NEW HAVEN CT 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) HARTFORD CT 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) NEW LONDON CT 34 4 6(10) 4(14) 1(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ALBANY NY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 6 6(12) 4(16) 3(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ISLIP NY 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-21 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GUSTY AND RAINY CONDITIONS ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON US EAST COAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Jose was located near 39.8, -67.8 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
jose
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 64
2017-09-21 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...GUSTY AND RAINY CONDITIONS ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TODAY... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON US EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.8N 67.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 67.8 West. Jose is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southeast New England for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 h. Jose is forecast to become post-tropical by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at the Nantucket Airport. An unofficial observing site in Vineyard Haven recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area today. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next several days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Friday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...additional 1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...additional 2 to 4 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
jose
storm
Sites : [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »