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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-21 01:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 23:57:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 21:25:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-21 01:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Jose was located near 39.4, -68.6 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 62A
2017-09-21 01:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202354 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 62A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 68.6W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 68.6 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A slow westward motion should begin by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44008, located about 65 miles southeast of Nantucket, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure measure by reconnaissance aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area tonight and continue through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next several days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...2 to 4 inches. These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-20 22:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 20:46:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 20:46:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 62
2017-09-20 22:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 Jose has generally changed little since the previous advisory. Geostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm is still producing well-defined convective bands on the north side of the circulation. Some of these outer bands are approaching the southern New England coastline. The initial wind speed is held at 60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. This estimate is also in fair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which also showed that Jose has a very large wind field. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later this evening, and should provide a better assessment of Jose's intensity. The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by a trough over eastern Canada. This trough should cause Jose to move east-northeastward at a slower pace tonight. Thereafter, the trough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weak steering currents. As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westward beginning Thursday night and continue in that direction through the weekend. The models have trended a little to the west at the end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followed suit. Jose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and is expected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few more days. These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradual weakening trend during the next several days. The models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches in Nantucket as it passes offshore. This rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 39.2N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 39.6N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 39.6N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 39.5N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 39.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z 39.4N 71.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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