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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 51

2017-09-18 04:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180250 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND TO SANDY HOOK * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO PLYMOUTH * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 71.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 200SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 71.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 71.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.4N 71.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.9N 71.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.6N 71.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.3N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 40.2N 68.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 38.5N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Jose Graphics

2017-09-18 01:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 23:45:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 21:23:32 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-18 01:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Jose was located near 31.9, -71.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 50A

2017-09-18 01:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 172343 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 50A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 71.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aicraft near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next couple of days, but Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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