je.st
news
Tag: jose
Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2017-09-12 22:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 122032 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-12 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 12 the center of Jose was located near 27.6, -67.4 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 30
2017-09-12 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 67.4W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 67.4 West. Jose is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn to the southeast and south at a slow forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will remain well to the east-northeast of the Bahamas through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
jose
advisory
Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-12 16:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 14:53:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 14:53:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
jose
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-09-12 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121447 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 The satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous blob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding features. The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its west. A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. The dynamical models indicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the next few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an upper-level high becomes situated over the system. Thus a little weakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later in the forecast period, is expected. Confidence in this intensity forecast is, however, lower than usual. Although the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary and microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt. Jose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents. The GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the west of the tropical cyclone in a day or two. The anticyclone is then forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the forecast period. This evolution of the steering flow should result in the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next several days. Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is well south and west of the other track models, the official forecast is near the left side of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 26.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 25.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.3N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
jose
forecast
Sites : [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] next »