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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-09-12 10:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120836 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Jose continues to be affected by 20 kt of northerly vertical shear, and recent microwave imagery shows that the low-level center is to the northeast or north of a large burst of convection that shows little evidence of banding. While satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, the sheared appearance suggests the cyclone has continued to weaken, and the initial intensity is thus reduced to 65 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. The hurricane appears to have turned eastward with an initial motion of 090/5. As a mid-level ridge first builds around and then moves northeast of the cyclone, the track guidance forecasts Jose to make an anticyclonic half-loop during the next 72 h. After that time, the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges significantly. One the right side, the ECMWF and Canadian models forecast a turn toward the north and northeast, while on the left side the UKMET forecasts a westward motion towards the Bahamas. The GFS, HWRF, and the various consensus models are between these extremes in forecasting a turn toward the northwest and eventually north-northwest. The new forecast track is in best agreement with these models and shifts slightly to the right of the previous advisory by 120 h. A strong upper-level anticyclone near 28N 74W is the source of the current shear. As mentioned in the previous advisory, this feature is supposed to weaken and pass north of the cyclone without allowing much decrease in the shear through 48 h. The large-scale models then suggest the possibility of lighter shear from 48-72 h, followed by increasing shear as Jose encounters an upper-level trough moving eastward from the southeastern United States. Overall, the intensity guidance shows small fluctuations in strength during the forecast period, and there is little agreement in the guidance on the timing of the various ups and downs. The intensity forecast will follow the shear trends in calling for some additional weakening during the next 12-24 h, modest re-intensification during the lighter shear, and no change during the subsequent increase in shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 27.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 26.9N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 25.3N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 25.5N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-09-12 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 120835 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-12 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE WEAKENS A LITTLE WHILE IT TURNS EASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 12 the center of Jose was located near 27.5, -69.0 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 28
2017-09-12 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120835 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 ...JOSE WEAKENS A LITTLE WHILE IT TURNS EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 69.0W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 69.0 West. Jose is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the southeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible during the next day or so, and Jose could weaken to a tropical storm later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-09-12 10:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120834 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 69.0W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 69.0W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.9N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 30.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 69.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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