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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-08-24 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 20:36:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 20:33:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-24 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 242034 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 Gaston is being affected by southwesterly vertical shear associated with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and cut-off low seen in water vapor imagery near 26n 51w. The shear has caused the low-level center to become partially exposed while much of the deep convection has been shunted to eastern half of the circulation. In spite of the degraded satellite presentation, dropsonde data from the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft investigating Gaston support keeping the intensity at 60 kt. In fact, additional observations from the ongoing mission might reveal that the system is even a little stronger than this estimate. Gaston is in for a prolonged period of strong southwesterly shear for the next 36 to 48 hours, with the shear possibly peaking around 30 kt during that time. The considerable shear is expected to induce weakening, and it is possible that more weakening could occur than indicated in the forecast despite the cyclone's moving over warmer waters. Once Gaston's interaction with the trough lessens in about 2 days, the cyclone should reach 29 deg C water when the shear diminishes. This should give Gaston an opportunity to re-intensify for at least a couple of days before the models indicate an increase in shear at the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is reduced relative to the previous one and is a little below the multi-model consensus through 48 hours, but then reverses and is above the consensus aids from 72-120 hours. Gaston's heading is now definitively northwestward, and the initial motion estimate is 315/14. A continued northwestward motion is likely for the next few days as Gaston moves between one cell of the subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic and the cut-off low to the northwest. After 72 hours, Gaston should approach a more significant weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge around 60w and slow while turning north-northwestward to northward. There are substantial model differences again this cycle, with the ECMWF indicating a weaker subtropical ridge. The weaker ridge makes Gaston more vulnerable to the mid-latitude westerly flow over the North Atlantic, which results in an earlier recurvature. However, the bulk of the guidance has a stronger ridge, and thus have solutions that go much farther west. No major changes have been made to the previous forecast in the short term but the track has been adjusted much farther to the left after 72 hours, in the direction of but not as far left as the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.4N 40.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 18.8N 42.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 21.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 25.7N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 28.3N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 30.1N 57.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 31.6N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-08-24 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 242033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 2100 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-08-24 22:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 24 the center of GASTON was located near 17.4, -40.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 9
2016-08-24 22:33:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 ...GASTON MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 40.6W ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 40.6 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin
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