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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 43
2016-09-02 10:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020846 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 Conventional satellite imagery and two earlier microwave images show the center of circulation decoupled well to the west of the remaining deep convection. The initial intensity is decreased to 55 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Continued weakening is expected as the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures and remains in a strong vertical shear environment. Gaston is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, with dissipation in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the IVCN intensity consensus model. Because Gaston's low-level circulation has decoupled from the mid-level flow due to the persistent strong shear, the cyclone's forward speed has decreased while moving eastward, or 080/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. At the 36-hour period, Gaston should turn northeastward in response to a frontal system approaching from the northwest and open up into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days. The NHC track foreast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 38.5N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 38.9N 31.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 39.7N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 41.3N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts/Stewart
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Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2016-09-02 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 020843 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 70 10(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 14 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-02 10:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...APPROACHING THE WESTERN AZORES... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 2 the center of GASTON was located near 38.5, -34.5 with movement E at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 43
2016-09-02 10:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 ...GASTON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...APPROACHING THE WESTERN AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 34.5W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 34.5 West. Gaston is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h). An east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near the western Azores today, and pass north of the central Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gaston is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the western Azores later this morning and in the central Azores tonight. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, over the western and central Azores, through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are affecting the Azores and will continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts/Stewart
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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 43
2016-09-02 10:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC FRI SEP 02 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES * FAIAL...PICO...GRACIOSA...SAO JORGE...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 34.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 110SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 34.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 35.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 38.9N 31.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 39.7N 29.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 41.3N 26.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 34.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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