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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-06-06 11:02:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060902 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 Colin remains poorly organized this morning. Surface observations and data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that at least two small-scale circulation centers are present, one near an intense burst of convection around 24.5N 85.5W and the other well to the west-northwest near 25.5N 89W. The low confidence initial position splits the difference between these two features. The Air Force aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 71 kt and estimated 60 kt surface winds on the SFMR instrument. However, these winds were measured in the aforementioned convection, and it is unclear how representative they are. There is sufficient data to justify increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt. The cyclone appears to be moving faster, with the initial motion now 015/12. The track forecast reasoning again has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or so, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. After that time, the cyclone will become embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated with a large baroclinic low over the eastern United States. The track guidance has nudged northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track, which lies near the consensus models, is also nudged northward. The poor organization and the presence of moderate vertical wind shear suggest that significant strengthening is unlikely before Colin makes landfall in Florida in less than 24 hours. The global models forecast winds of near 50 kt as Colin moves over the Atlantic and begins extratropical transition, and the latter part of the intensity forecast is based on this guidance. The model guidance forecasts that extratropical transition should be complete by about 72 hours. It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 25.2N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 27.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 30.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 33.8N 76.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 08/0600Z 37.6N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 54.0N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-06-06 10:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 060855 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 0900 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 26(26) 12(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 35(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 10(10) 31(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 22(22) 21(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 37(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 78(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 57(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 80(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 82(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 6 83(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 62(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 8 71(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) THE VILLAGES 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 5 44(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PATRICK AFB 34 2 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 10 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 12 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) VENICE FL 34 30 18(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) TAMPA FL 34 28 43(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 34 26 65(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 4 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ST MARKS FL 34 9 44(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ST MARKS FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 24 22(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 290N 850W 34 68 13(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-06 10:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT COLIN IS STRONGER... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 the center of COLIN was located near 25.2, -87.4 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 4
2016-06-06 10:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060854 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT COLIN IS STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 87.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Colin. Additional warnings and watches may be required for parts of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 87.4 West. Colin is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today. A rapid northeastward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area this afternoon or evening, move across portions of Florida and southeastern Georgia early Tuesday morning, and move near the southeastern coast of the United states later on Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western to northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the Florida East and Georgia coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area, as well as in the Tropical Storm Watch area along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Gulf coast within the warning area this afternoon, and the Atlantic coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch area on Tuesday. TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-06-06 10:54:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060854 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 0900 UTC MON JUN 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD * ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SEBASTIAN INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.6N 85.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 30.7N 81.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.8N 76.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 100SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.6N 67.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 100SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.0N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 87.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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