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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-06-07 10:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070859 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic. Overall, the system does not look very tropical. However, a large area of deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the center during the night. Aircraft data and ship reports suggest that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of the center. Colin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now 050/27. The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for the next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. After that, the forward speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a northward nudge at 72-120 hours. Baroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening today even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics. The cyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical low in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. The forecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. The current warnings are expected to remain in effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not get closer to the coast than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.6N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 37.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1800Z 42.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 45.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 50.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 56.0N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-06-07 10:59:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 070858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) X(46) X(46) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 20 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHERRY PT NC 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 34 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SURF CITY NC 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm COLIN (AT3/AL032016)
2016-06-07 10:57:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF COLIN MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 7 the center of COLIN was located near 31.6, -80.6 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 8
2016-06-07 10:57:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070856 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...CENTER OF COLIN MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Atlantic coast south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, and along the Gulf coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Oregon Inlet North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Colin should move near and parallel to the coast of the southeastern United States today. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds and heaviest rains are well removed from the center. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ship data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. However, Colin is also expected to lose its tropical cyclone characteristics by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). NOAA buoy 41008 recently reported a pressure of 1002.0 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across eastern North Carolina and central Florida through today. Rainfall is expected to diminish across northern Florida, coastal Georgia, and eastern South Carolina this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical storm warning area. The surge along the Florida Gulf coast should diminish today. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur over portions of the warning area today. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will remain possible across parts of the coastal Carolinas today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-06-07 10:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070851 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 0900 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 82.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.8N 67.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 200SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 42.0N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 45.2N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 200SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 50.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 200SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 56.0N 28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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