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Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-18 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 Before completing its mission in Don, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft twice measured reliable surface winds around 40 kt via the SFMR instrument, and that is set as the initial intensity for this advisory. A burst of deep convection which began just after 2000 UTC has persisted for the past several hours, and small clusters of lightning have periodically occurred near the estimated center. Don is embedded within a narrow east-west zone of low shear, and that shear is expected to remain low for another 24 hours or so. Since the cyclone has a compact circulation, significant changes in intensity--both up and down--become more likely. Therefore, given that the environment looks favorable for the next 24 hours, the new NHC intensity forecast shows strengthening up to 50 kt as Don approaches the Windward Islands. After 24 hours, increasing westerly shear should induce weakening while Don moves through the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into an open wave by 72 hours, if not sooner. Since model guidance varies widely between only showing an open wave (most of the global models) to Don reaching hurricane strength (HWRF and some of the statistical models), it cannot be stressed enough that confidence in the intensity forecast is very low at this time. Don's initial motion is 280/16 kt. There is also a bit of uncertainty in the track forecast, especially in Don's future forward speed, since most of the global models don't show a strong enough vortex to provide a tracker. However, the general trend is for Don to move just north of due west and speed up by 24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast after 24 hours, mainly based on the latest GFS and ECMWF global model fields. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 11.3N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 11.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 12.0N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 12.3N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 12.5N 69.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Don (AT5/AL052017)
2017-07-18 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DON EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Jul 17 the center of Don was located near 11.3, -54.6 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Don Public Advisory Number 2
2017-07-18 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180235 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 1100 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017 ...DON EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 54.6W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours. Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should monitor the progress of Don. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 54.6 West. Don is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected through Wednesday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Don will move across the Windward Islands late Tuesday and then westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Tuesday while Don approaches the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected on Wednesday when Don moves through the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Don Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-07-18 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 180235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X 28(28) 34(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GRENADA 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GRENADA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Don Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-07-18 04:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052017 0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 54.6W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 54.6W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.6N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 61.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.3N 65.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 69.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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