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Tropical Storm Don Public Advisory Number 5A
2017-07-19 01:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182355 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Don Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 800 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 ...DON ACCELERATING WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES GRENADA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 61.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF GRENADA ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba should continue to monitor the progress of Don. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 61.4 West. Don is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general motion is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Don will move across the Windward Islands within the next few hours, and then move westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea late tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. The system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure tonight or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the Windward Islands within the warning area during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, across Trinidad and Tobago and the southern Windward Islands through Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Don Graphics
2017-07-18 23:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 21:47:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 21:47:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Don Graphics
2017-07-18 22:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 20:42:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Jul 2017 20:42:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-18 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017 500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017 Deep convection associated with Don has continued to pulse near the alleged center today, with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the northern and northwestern portions of the system. These rains have started to spread over the Windward Islands, and sustained winds of 25 to 30 kt have been reported at Barbados during the past few hours. Satellite, microwave, and surface data continue to suggest that the circulation of the system is likely not closed. Another reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled this evening, which should help to determine if Don is still a tropical cyclone. The anticipated westward acceleration of the system seems to have occurred, with the initial motion now westward or 275/19 kt. Don or its remnants should continue to move briskly westward during the next day or so in the fast trade wind flow over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Increasing westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and the fast westward motion of the system are likely to cause the tropical storm to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by late Wednesday, if not sooner. Given the fast forward speed, the remnants are likely to continue producing wind gusts to near tropical storm force over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 11.7N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 11.9N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 12.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Don Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-07-18 22:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 182036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052017 2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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