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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-02 16:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2019 14:39:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2019 15:24:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 41
2019-10-02 16:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021436 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired frontal features. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds. The global models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland. A faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom. The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday. The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt, and this general motion should continue into Thursday. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow. The global model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is in closest to the ECMWF model. Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met Office. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/. Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following agencies: The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and- sea/high-seas-forecast Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2019-10-02 16:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 021436 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-02 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Lorenzo was located near 44.4, -25.8 with movement NE at 43 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 41
2019-10-02 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021435 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT.......200NE 240SE 220SW 150NW. 34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 720SE 840SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 28.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 60NW. 50 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...100NE 100SE 120SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 180SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 140SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 25.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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