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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-05-09 05:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090341 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ana has intensified. The strongest winds were measured in a band well to the east and northeast of the center. The current intensity is set at 50 kt, a little below the highest SFMR winds which are believed to be slightly rain-inflated. The satellite presentation of Ana is still somewhat subtropical, with almost all of the deep convection in a band over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Moreover, observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicate a radius of maximum winds of no less than 50-60 n mi. Therefore Ana is still being designated as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, there is some indication that deep convection is beginning to develop nearer to the center, and this is a sign that the transition to a tropical cyclone may occur not long from now. Center fixes from the aircraft show a general northward drift of 350/2. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous package. Over the next few days, the presistent blocking ridge to the north of Ana is forecast to break down and shift eastward as a broad mid-tropospheric trough moves into the U.S. Ohio Valley region. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Ana to turn northwestward and then northward at a slightly faster forward speed before crossing the coast in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond that time, the flow ahead of the trough should carry Ana or its remnants northeastward at a substantially faster forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also close to the latest multi-model consensus. Dynamical and statistical/dynamical intensity model guidance do not show much additional strengthening. In 24 hours or so, as Ana moves northwest of the Gulf Stream, it should encounter progressively cooler waters. This, along with the entrainment of drier air, should lead to weakening. The official wind speed forecast is fairly similar to the intensity model consensus. By 96 hours, the latest global model runs show the system degenerating into an open trough as Ana's post-tropical remnants merge with a large extratropical low over Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.1N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 32.4N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 33.6N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 34.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0000Z 37.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-05-09 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090236 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ana has intensified. The strongest winds were measured in a band well to the east and northeast of the center. The current intensity is set at 50 kt, a little below the highest SFMR winds which are believed to be slightly rain-inflated. The satellite presentation of Ana is still somewhat subtropical, with almost all of the deep convection in a band over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Moreover, observations from the Hurricane Hunters indicate a radius of maximum winds of no less than 50-60 n mi. Therefore Ana is still being designated as a subtropical cyclone at this time. However, there is some indication that deep convection is beginning to develop nearer to the center, and this is a sign that the transition to a tropical cyclone may occur not long from now. Center fixes from the aircraft show a general northward drift of 350/2. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous package. Over the next few days, the presistent blocking ridge to the north of Ana is forecast to break down and shift eastward as a broad mid-tropospheric trough moves into the U.S. Ohio Valley region. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Ana to turn northwestward and then northward at a slightly faster forward speed before crossing the coast in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond that time, the flow ahead of the trough should carry Ana or its remnants northeastward at a substantially faster forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also close to the latest multi-model consensus. Dynamical and statistical/dynamical intensity model guidance do not show much additional strengthening. In 24 hours or so, as Ana moves northwest of the Gulf Stream, it should encounter progressively cooler waters. This, along with the entrainment of drier air, should lead to weakening. The official wind speed forecast is fairly similar to the intensity model consensus. By 96 hours, the latest global model runs show the system degenerating into an open trough as Ana's post-tropical remnants merge with a large extratopical low over Atlantic Canda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.1N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 32.4N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 32.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 33.6N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 34.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0000Z 37.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-09 04:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 02:33:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 02:32:45 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-09 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ANA STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri May 8 the center of ANA was located near 32.1, -77.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 5
2015-05-09 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ANA STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 77.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.4 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and then back to the north at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate tha maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is forecast through Saturday morning. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin within 24 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by Saturday afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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