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Summary for Tropical Storm SONIA (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-03 12:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SONIA MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 4:00 AM PST Sun Nov 3 the center of SONIA was located near 19.3, -110.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm SONIA Public Advisory Number 9A
2013-11-03 12:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031155 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 400 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 ...SONIA MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 400 AM PST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM PST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SONIA MAKES LANDFALL ON MONDAY. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER SONIA MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ON MONDAY. RAINFALL...SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA AND WESTERN DURANGO. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm SONIA Graphics
2013-11-03 10:09:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2013 08:45:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2013 09:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm SONIA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-11-03 09:44:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030844 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 100 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 AFTER HAVING GONE THROUGH SEVERAL PULSING PHASES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MORE PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHARP DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B OVERPASSES AT 0421Z AND 0514Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 36 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS SATCON. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SONIA. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MORE THAN 25 KT... CAUSING RAPID WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A POSITION IS SHOWN AT 48 HOURS...MAINLY FOR CONTINUITY... THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE DISSIPATED INLAND BY THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/06 KT. THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASSES...ALONG WITH PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE HELPED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE CENTER LOCATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE OVERALL INNER-CORE WIND FIELD IS STILL BROAD AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH OF THE ALLEGED CENTER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BY 12 HOURS AND BEYOND...SONIA WILL GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING 120W LONGITUDE. AS A RESULT...SONIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ON MONDAY. THE NHC MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO....AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. BASED ON THE UPDATED TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.8N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 24.9N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 27.0N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm SONIA (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-03 09:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SONIA JUST EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM PST Sun Nov 3 the center of SONIA was located near 18.8, -110.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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