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Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-12 04:55:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 02:55:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Jul 2019 03:24:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-12 04:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120255 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since the previous advisory. The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model. Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET is still along along the far western side of the envelope, but the 18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus models. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-07-12 04:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 120254 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0300 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 11 6(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 10 18(28) 10(38) 4(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 2 10(12) 15(27) 10(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 29 27(56) 8(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 8(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 23(27) 26(53) 7(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 71 24(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 280N 910W 50 5 30(35) 7(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 8( 9) 35(44) 17(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 28(30) 38(68) 7(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 28(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 5( 6) 36(42) 19(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 10(11) 38(49) 15(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 21(27) 14(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMERON LA 34 2 9(11) 20(31) 11(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-12 01:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Jul 2019 23:53:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Jul 2019 21:24:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-12 01:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 the center of Barry was located near 27.8, -89.3 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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