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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-14 16:59:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 14:59:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 14:59:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-06-14 16:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud's overall structure and convective pattern have changed little since the previous advisory, with the tropical storm consisting of mainly a large swirl of low clouds and fragmented cyclonically curved bands of moderate convection. Despite this unimpressive satellite appearance, Bud is still producing tropical-storm-force winds in the the convective band in the northern semicircle. A Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a 2-minute average wind of 39 kt and a gust to 53 kt, and also reported 36-kt winds for a 5-minute period shortly after 1200 UTC. The observing site has also recorded a pressure of 1004.5 mb thus far. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory, and the central pressure is estimated to be 1000 mb. Bud has a broad inner-core wind field and a small-scale vortex has been rotating counter-clockwise within the larger cyclonic gyre. After smoothing through all the wobbles of the center, a motion of 345/06 kt is computed over the past 18 hours. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. The model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track and remains in excellent agreement that Bud will gradually turn northward during the next 36 hours around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across north-central Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected by 48 hours as the steering flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, which will also act to accelerate Bud. The new NHC forecast track is just a tad to the west of the previous track through 24 hours, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. During the next 24 hours, Bud will be moving over cool waters and interacting with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja California, which should result in a gradual erosion of the deep convection and spin down of the circulation. Some enhanced wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling between Bud's center and the higher terrain of mainland Mexico is possible once Bud's center emerges over the Gulf of California in 24 hours. For that reason, Bud is being maintained as a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 36 hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 21.7N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 22.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 24.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 29.4N 110.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-14 16:53:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD LASHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Bud was located near 21.7, -109.6 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 20
2018-06-14 16:53:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...BUD LASHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 109.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-06-14 16:53:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141453 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 76 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 66 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SAN JOSE CABO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 11 27(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) LA PAZ 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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