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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-06-14 04:09:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 33(38) 11(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 27(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-14 04:09:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON THURSDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 20.5, -109.1 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 18
2018-06-14 04:09:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 109.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 109.1 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue on Thursday. A faster northward motion is expected to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late on Thursday and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening storm is expected to make a second landfall over mainland Mexico by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slow weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low or dissipate after it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-06-14 04:00:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 ZCZC MIATCMEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 109.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 109.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-14 01:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 20.2, -109.0 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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