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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-06-13 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Upwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are decreasing precipitously, with CI numbers ranging from 4.3/72 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT to 5.0/90 kt from TAFB. The advisory intensity is set at 80 kt, near the midpoint of this range. Bud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over New Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 kt. The ridge is not expected to move much during the next couple of days, but a deepening trough extending from California southward should cause Bud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours. After 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the ridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCX multi-model consensus. This forecast is along the previous track for the first 48 hours and then slightly to the east on days 3 and 4. Bud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days, which will zap the hurricane of its energy and cause it to steadily weaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Bud is likely to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a tropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48 hours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Santa Fe to La Paz. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-06-13 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 4( 7) 9(16) 26(42) 15(57) X(57) X(57) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 3( 6) 7(13) 23(36) 17(53) X(53) X(53) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 7(13) 26(39) 1(40) X(40) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) X(16) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 2(19) X(19) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 34 47(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 110W 50 2 20(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 110W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 5 8(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-13 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 the center of Bud was located near 18.7, -108.6 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-06-13 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 130232 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 14
2018-06-13 04:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 ...BUD WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 108.6W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for southern Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 108.6 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja California Sur Thursday night and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bud is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Thursday. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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