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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-10 22:43:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 20:43:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Jun 2018 21:34:27 GMT
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-06-10 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102041 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 The cloud pattern of Bud has continued to become better organized, and a ragged eye has become apparent intermittently on visible images. T-numbers from TAFB and CIMSS have reached 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, so Bud has been upgraded to hurricane status with 65- kt winds in this advisory. The environment continues to be quite favorable for strengthening, while the rapid intensification indexes continue to be high. On this basis, the NHC forecast, which is very close to both the corrected consensus HCCA and FSSE models calls for additional strengthening for the next 24 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours, a steady state or weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula. The best estimate of the initial motion continues to be toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the periphery of a high pressure system over the western United States. In about 3 days, Bud is expected to reach the western edge of the high, and the cyclone should then begin to turn toward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days since guidance continues to be in quite good agreement. After that time, the guidance becomes less reliable, but in general, all models bring a weakening tropical cyclone over or near Baja California peninsula. Although the core of Bud is expected to pass well off the southwestern coast of Mexico, the hurricane is accompanied by rainbands mainly to the east of the center. These bands have the possibility of producing tropical-storm-force winds along a portion of the coast. Consequently, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-06-10 22:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 102041 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC SUN JUN 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 14(30) 5(35) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 5(34) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 5(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 23(42) 4(46) 2(48) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 1(21) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 13(24) 4(28) 1(29) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 9(23) 13(36) 3(39) 1(40) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 87 1(88) X(88) 1(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 105W 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 18(22) 12(34) 7(41) 7(48) 2(50) X(50) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 7 17(24) 8(32) 5(37) 5(42) 1(43) 1(44) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 11(19) 25(44) 9(53) 2(55) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 14(25) 5(30) 2(32) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-10 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...RAPID STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNDERWAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 the center of Bud was located near 15.3, -104.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 5
2018-06-10 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 102040 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018 ...ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... ...RAPID STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNDERWAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 104.2W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 through 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 104.2 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. This track will keep the core of Bud and its stronger winds well off the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud could strengthen rapidly during the next 24 hours or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 145 miles (230 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches into Tuesday afternoon. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in higher terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next 2 to 3 days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Monday afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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