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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL QUICKLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.9, -108.1 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 18

2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182047 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL QUICKLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 108.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL APPROACH THE WEST- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHEN IS FORECAST AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT... AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 18

2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182047 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. A RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE PICTURES. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER... MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SINCE THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OFFSHORE. MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY. BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST. RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2013-09-18 22:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182047 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 10 18 37 50 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 10 21 26 40 36 NA TROPICAL STORM 30 44 45 46 23 14 NA HURRICANE 69 44 24 11 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 65 36 19 9 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 5 7 4 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 70KT 55KT 35KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) LA PAZ 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 5(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 6 39(45) 8(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 10(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 55 21(76) 2(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CULIACAN 50 10 23(33) 4(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) CULIACAN 64 3 13(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 18

2013-09-18 22:47:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 182047 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 108.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 108.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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