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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 11

2013-09-16 04:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160246 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 104.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 104.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics

2013-09-16 01:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 23:45:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 21:05:24 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-16 01:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 19.5, -104.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 10A

2013-09-16 01:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152344 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...MANUEL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 104.5W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES... IS BASED ON MEXICAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD BE SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-15 23:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 19.2, -104.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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