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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-19 19:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 11:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of MANUEL was located near 25.2, -107.7 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 21A
2013-09-19 19:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191734 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 ...MANUEL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 107.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF ALTATA MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND..TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-19 17:12:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 14:41:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 15:05:25 GMT
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Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-09-19 16:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191440 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED... AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE THAT TIME...RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200 UTC...WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY. THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2013-09-19 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191439 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 17 39 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 7 57 44 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 25 17 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LOS MOCHIS 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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