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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 23
2018-07-12 10:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 427 WTNT23 KNHC 120831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 60.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 130SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 360SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 60.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 45.4N 55.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 49.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 52.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 54.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 60.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Chris Graphics
2018-07-12 04:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jul 2018 02:47:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jul 2018 03:25:51 GMT
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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-07-12 04:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 163 WTNT43 KNHC 120246 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 Chris is quickly unraveling, with its eye completely disintegrating a few hours ago and the convective pattern showing the hallmarks of the onset of extratropical transition. Earlier microwave data actually showed that the hurricane had a concentric eyewall structure, but the mid-level eye was already being stripped away from the low-level center due to increasing southwesterly shear. Chris's initial intensity is set at 75 kt based on a blend of final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is accelerating toward the northeast with an initial motion of 050/25 kt, and the acceleration is expected to continue for the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves ahead of a deep-layer trough located over eastern Canada. After 48 hours, Chris is forecast to slow down to the south of Iceland when it interacts with another deep-layer low. The track guidance is tightly clustered very close to the previous official forecast during the first 72 hours, with only a little more model spread and deviation from the previous forecast at 96 hours. Therefore, the only change to the updated NHC track forecast is to slow down the storm a little on day 4 while it's located south of Iceland. Chris may still exist on day 5, but there's too much uncertainty among the models to extend the official forecast at this point. Chris is currently moving over a few warm eddies along the Gulf Stream, but the hurricane's center will move across the North Wall within the next 6 hours and head toward much colder waters. Vertical shear will also be increasing further over the next 24 hours, and Chris is expected to be fully embedded within a frontal zone within 18-24 hours. The NHC official forecast calls for Chris to complete extratropical transition just before the center reaches extreme southeastern Newfoundland within 24 hours, and the cyclone's intensity should gradually decrease while it moves across the North Atlantic. The intensity forecast is close to the tropical model guidance for the first 12-24 hours but then sides closer to the GFS and ECMWF guidance during the remainder of the forecast. Chris's wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on a 0034 UTC ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 39.6N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 42.6N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 46.9N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1200Z 50.2N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0000Z 53.1N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0000Z 59.6N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0000Z 62.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-07-12 04:46:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 802 FONT13 KNHC 120246 PWSAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 12(12) 54(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 84(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 2 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BURGEO NFLD 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 35 9(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-12 04:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Jul 11 the center of Chris was located near 39.6, -63.0 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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