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Hurricane Chris Graphics
2018-07-11 04:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jul 2018 02:46:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jul 2018 03:26:13 GMT
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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-07-11 04:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 001 WTNT43 KNHC 110244 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Chris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of the area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an inner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery becoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer water. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were 90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt. Based on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt. The initial motion remains 050/9. Chris is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the southeast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United states. The combination of these features should cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in about 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track and the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster than the previous forecast. The eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler water south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely slow the intensification rate. Otherwise, conditions appear favorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream. Extratropical transition should begin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete before the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland. After that, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses the North Atlantic. The new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends, and it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h based on the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 34.2N 71.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 35.8N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 38.8N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 42.8N 59.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 46.6N 53.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 53.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z 57.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z 61.5N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-07-11 04:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 621 FONT13 KNHC 110243 PWSAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 54(69) X(69) X(69) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 63(63) 7(70) X(70) X(70) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 67(67) 6(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 28(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-11 04:43:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 the center of Chris was located near 34.2, -71.4 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Chris Public Advisory Number 18
2018-07-11 04:43:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 551 WTNT33 KNHC 110243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 71.4W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 71.4 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued northeastward motion accompanied by a steady increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chris will be near southeastern Newfoundland Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely tonight and Wednesday morning. After that, Chris is forecast to begin weakening Wednesday night, and the system is expected to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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