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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-30 21:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR ACCELERATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 30 the center of Oscar was located near 31.3, -56.6 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 16
2018-10-30 21:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 ...OSCAR ACCELERATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 56.6W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 56.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion in the same general direction is expected through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful post-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-10-30 21:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 302032 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-30 15:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Oct 2018 14:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Oct 2018 15:22:14 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-10-30 15:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 301435 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 Cloud-top temperatures have warmed a bit overall, and the convective pattern is becoming more asymmetric as dry air is infiltrating the southern and eastern part of Oscar's circulation. However, the hurricane is still producing plenty of inner-core convection and some lightning strikes. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB still support maximum winds of 90-100 kt, but objective numbers are much lower (65-75 kt), so Oscar's initial intensity is lowered slightly to 85 kt. Increasing shear and stronger upper-level divergence will likely offset each other in the short term, causing Oscar to maintain its intensity or only slightly weaken during the next 24 hours. However, a cold front is quickly approaching Oscar from the northwest, and their interaction is expected to cause Oscar to complete extratropical transition and become fully embedded within the frontal zone in about 36 hours. Oscar's winds should gradually diminish after it becomes extratropical, but the NHC official forecast remains above the various consensus aids from 36 hours and beyond and lies closest to the GFS and ECMWF global models, which should have a good handle on the cyclone's structure during the post-tropical phase. Oscar continues to accelerate and has turned north-northeastward, or 020/12 kt, while entering the flow between a large high over the eastern/central Atlantic and a mid-latitude trough now moving over the western Atlantic. Oscar is expected to become embedded within the trough by 36 hours (the completion of extratropical transition), with the entire system becoming a cut-off low north of the jet stream by days 4 and 5. The track models are in fairly good agreement on Oscar's future path, but there are speed differences by the end of the forecast period. Of particular note, the ECMWF is much faster than the other models, showing a more progressive pattern on day 5. The NHC track forecast lies close to the previous official forecast to maintain continuity, but it is still faster than the GFS, HWRF, and the TVCN multi-model consensus at day 5. Large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 29.7N 57.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 31.8N 56.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 40.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1200Z 45.1N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z 52.6N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z 59.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 63.5N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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