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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-09-15 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 31.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 31.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 30.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.8N 38.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 31.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2016-09-15 16:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:37:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:36:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-15 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 151436 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-15 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 Visible satellite images indicate that the depression has a rather impressive low-level circulation, although all the deep convection is far removed from the center due to southwesterly shear. Given such a well-defined circulation, the depression could have become a tropical storm overnight. The initial wind speed, however, remains 30 kt using a blend of the TAFB/SAB estimates with any of the more reliable ASCAT passes unfortunately missing the center during the past 18 hours. An upper-level trough to the northwest of the cyclone is expected to cause an increase in shear during the next day or so, which will likely cause the cyclone to weaken. Beyond 48 hours, most of the models show the shear relaxing, with an upper-level high taking the place of the trough, and the cyclone is forecast to move over warmer waters. This will probably promote a restrengthening trend, although guidance is in poor agreement on how much the winds could increase. Thus, the official forecast is reduced a little bit for Friday/Saturday due to the shear, then is the same as the previous one, showing a slow restrengthening early next week. It is also possible the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low for a while due to the shear, although this isn't the likeliest scenario. The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, and this general motion should continue for a day or so while it moves around the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast by much of the guidance to strengthen and build westward, which would force the depression to the west-southwest over the weekend. Early next week, the cyclone could begin to gain some latitude as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, except for the GFDL which appears to be a northward outlier. The official forecast track is very close to a blend of the other models in the TVCN consensus minus the GFDL, and is basically an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.7N 30.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 32.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.9N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.7N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.4N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 16.7N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 17.5N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-15 16:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.7, -30.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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