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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-14 22:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142040 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 The depression has not become better organized since the last advisory, with the most concentrated convection now in a cluster just west of the estimated center position. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from SAB. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36-48 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track based on a slight northward shift in the track guidance. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so. After that, the cyclone will encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough near and north of the cyclone. This, combined with passage over sea-surface temperatures of about 26C-27C, should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models continue to diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable ridge pattern near the cyclone, whereas the GFS has an upper-level trough close by. Based on these conflicting models, the forecast leans toward the ECMWF/UKMET scenario and shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates into a broad low pressure area or tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM. Gusty winds remain possible over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight, whereas locally heavy rains will remain possible through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.9N 28.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 18.0N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 18.1N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 35.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-14 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NOW WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 14 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.4, -26.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2016-09-14 16:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:43:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:42:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-14 16:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 141442 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-14 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141442 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data along with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 300/12. A low- to mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The forecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the various consensus models. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear while over sea surface temperatures of about 26C. This combination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable pattern than the GFS. Based on this, the forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates to a tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast is on the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo Verde Islands. However, current indications are that the cyclone will not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of the islands. Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.5N 26.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.8N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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