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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-08-01 04:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010243 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Mesonet observations from the area north and northwest of Lake Okeechobee indicate that Emily has an elongated surface circulation. Although some deep convection has redeveloped near and to the east of the center, Doppler velocity data from the Tampa and Melbourne WSR-88D radars only show winds of 30-35 kt at an elevation of about 5000 ft. Therefore, Emily's maximum sustained surface winds are estimated to be 25 kt, primarily within the thunderstorm activity east and southeast of the center. Emily's center, as seen on radar, has been moving east-southeastward for much of the evening. However, it seems to have recently turned eastward, and the initial motion estimate is 095/8 kt. Emily is embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that lies off the southeastern coast of the United States, and the subtropical ridge to the east should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward soon, move off the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday, and then accelerate over the western Atlantic during the next several days. Although all of the track models agree on this scenario, the GFS is a notable outlier compared to the other models, showing a slower solution that leans more to the left. Because the other models are so tightly clustered, the updated NHC track forecast leans closer to them and is a little bit faster than the previous forecast. There is low confidence in how strong Emily will get, or what exactly it will be, during the next few days. The global models keep Emily embedded within or near a weak frontal zone while it moves across the western Atlantic, suggesting that the cyclone's center may not move continuously but rather jump and reform from time to time along the boundary. These models also do not show Emily restrengthening much, even over the warm ocean, and phase-space diagrams suggest that the cyclone may become more cold core during the next few days. On the other hand, the more tropical models, like SHIPS and HWRF, show a little bit more re-intensification. Given that vertical shear is forecast to increase, and that Emily likely isn't purely tropical to begin with, the new NHC intensity forecast sides with the global models just a little bit more than SHIPS and HWRF. Based on this, Emily is forecast to intensify just a bit and become extratropical in about 48 hours. The extratropical low is expected to dissipate by day 5. The primary threat with Emily continues to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND OVER FLORIDA 12H 01/1200Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 32.1N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 33.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 36.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z 38.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)

2017-08-01 04:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EMILY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Emily was located near 27.5, -81.0 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Emily Graphics

2017-07-31 22:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 20:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Jul 2017 20:48:35 GMT

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Tropical Depression Emily Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-07-31 22:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312043 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Emily's appearance in satellite and radar imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory, with only weak convection noted near the low-level center. The deepest convection is well removed from the center and lies across southern Florida and the Keys. Since Doppler velocity values at any altitude have decreased to less than 40 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, resulting in Emily being downgraded to a depression on this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 070/10 kt. Emily made landfall on Anna Maria Island, Florida, around 1445Z. Since that time, the depression has been moving steadily eastward to east-northeastward, and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Emily emerging off the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning, and then accelerating northeastward ahead of a digging mid-level trough and frontal system through the remainder of the forecast period. There is high confidence that Emily will not directly affect the southeastern United States after the small cyclone emerges over the Atlantic Ocean. The new NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Some additional weakening is possible tonight while Emily moves across the central Florida peninsula and entrains more dry air from the north and west of the system. However, once the compact cyclone emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, some gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin while the vertical wind shear is modest at around 15 kt. By 48 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt, which should act to cap Emily's intensity until the cyclone dissipates or merges with a frontal system in 96-120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status when it exits the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area. The primary threat with Emily will continue to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern Florida peninsula through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 27.8N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 01/0600Z 28.4N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 01/1800Z 29.9N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 31.4N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 35.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 38.1N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Depression Emily (AT1/AL062017)

2017-07-31 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Emily was located near 27.8, -81.7 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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