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Summary for Hurricane Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-17 16:53:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE QUICKLY BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 the center of Lane was located near 11.2, -132.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Lane Public Advisory Number 11
2018-08-17 16:53:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 007 WTPZ34 KNHC 171453 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 ...LANE QUICKLY BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 132.9W ABOUT 1715 MI...2760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1590 MI...2555 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the next few days, and Lane is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific basin on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight. Little change in strength is expected on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-08-17 16:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 072 WTPZ24 KNHC 171452 TCMEP4 HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 132.9W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 132.9W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-17 10:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 844 WTPZ44 KNHC 170834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane continues to gradually strengthen. Recent microwave images show a well-defined low-level eye, but this feature is not yet apparent in geostationary satellite images. The latest satellite images show an organized central dense overcast, but convection has decreased in the outer bands. An average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 70 kt. The environmental factors suggest that continued steady or rapid strengthening is likely during the next couple of days. However, there could be some intrusions of dry air that might interrupt the rate of strengthening. Nonetheless, it seems likely that Lane will become a major hurricane within the next couple of days. By the end of the forecast period, the environment looks a little less ideal with drier air and an increase in shear likely causing slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and it remains at the high end of the model guidance. After wobbling to the north late yesterday, Lane has resumed a more westward motion at 14 kt. The hurricane is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. There is some north-south spread amongst the models with the UKMET on the southern side of the guidance and the GFS and HWRF on the northern side. This spread appears to be associated with how much influence a mid- to upper-level low off the Baja California coast has on Lane's steering flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, favoring the various consensus models, and is slightly to the left of the previous forecast track. Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 36 to 48 hours. The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted outward based on a 0544 UTC ASCAT-B pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 11.4N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-17 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 835 FOPZ14 KNHC 170834 PWSEP4 HURRICANE LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 23(40) 3(43) 1(44) X(44) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 68(76) 4(80) X(80) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 5(52) X(52) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 3(30) X(30) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 50(63) 8(71) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 7(40) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 19(38) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 33(43) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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