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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-16 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 648 WTPZ44 KNHC 162036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye, with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise around the northern side of the circulation. While Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently started to potentially form an eye. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure. Further intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility. The new NHC forecast is basically an update from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could be conservative. The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11. The synoptic pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the north. While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast period. The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically come in right on top of the last NHC forecast. Thus the new NHC track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-16 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE STRENGTHENING, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 the center of Lane was located near 10.6, -128.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 8
2018-08-16 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 739 WTPZ34 KNHC 162035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 ...LANE STRENGTHENING, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 128.6W ABOUT 1495 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1870 MI...3010 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 128.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast through Saturday, with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early on Friday and should become a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-08-16 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 763 FOPZ14 KNHC 162035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 10N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 25(38) 1(39) X(39) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 27(69) 2(71) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 1(41) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 25(58) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-08-16 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 305 WTPZ24 KNHC 162034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 2100 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 15SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 128.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 128.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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